For years, we have heard warnings about food shortages.

Droughts. Floods. Changing weather. Failed crops. Rising food prices and then there is something called El Niño.

If you’ve heard the name but never really understood what it meant, you’re probably not alone.

El Niño is a natural weather pattern that begins in the Pacific Ocean. Every few years, the water in parts of the Pacific becomes warmer than usual. That might sound like something happening far out at sea that wouldn’t affect the average person, but it can actually change weather patterns around the world.

Some places become much drier. Others receive far too much rain and when either happens in farming regions, food production can suffer.

El Niño has been happening for a very long time. In fact, the name goes back to fishermen along the coast of Peru who noticed unusually warm ocean water around Christmastime. 

Over the years, however, we have learned just how powerful this weather pattern can be.

Past El Niño events have contributed to drought, flooding and damaged harvests across parts of Africa, Asia, Australia and the Americas. When crops suffer on a large scale, the consequences can eventually reach our supermarket shelves through shortages or higher prices.

However, Something Has Changed, the world hasn’t simply been sitting around waiting for the next El Niño.

We have been learning.

Farmers are producing more food. Agricultural technology has improved. Irrigation systems have expanded. Scientists have developed crops that are better able to withstand drought. Farmers have access to better weather information, satellite monitoring and digital tools that can help them make decisions earlier.; and importantly, the world currently has large stores of important foods such as wheat and rice.

Countries that weren’t once major agricultural exporters have also become important suppliers.

According to Reuters, these changes mean today’s global food system may be considerably better prepared to withstand a powerful El Niño than it was decades ago and I think that’s worth talking about.

A lot of what we hear about the future of food is frightening:

What if there is another drought?

What if crops fail?

What if there isn’t enough food?

Those are reasonable questions.

But perhaps we should also ask another one: What have we learned? because humanity has been preparing, not perfectly, not everywhere. and certainly not enough to say that hunger or famine can no longer happen but progress has been made.

Does This Mean There Won’t Be Famine? Not saying that.

A stronger global food system doesn’t necessarily mean that every person will have enough food.

Sometimes the problem isn’t that food doesn’t exist.

The problem is getting the food to the people who need it.

War can stop food from reaching communities. Poverty can make food unaffordable, roads and infrastructure can be destroyed. Drought can devastate one particular region even when another part of the world has plenty etc and El Niño itself remains a serious threat. 

The Food and Agriculture Organization warns that areas of the Sahel, Southern Africa, South and Southeast Asia, Central America and the Caribbean remain particularly vulnerable to agricultural drought during strong El Niño conditions.

So this isn’t a story saying:

“The food problem is solved.”

It’s a story saying:

“We may be getting better at preparing for the problem.”

And there is a big difference.

Perhaps This Is What Progress Looks Like

Progress doesn’t always mean eliminating a problem.

Sometimes progress means that something that once knocked us completely off our feet doesn’t hit quite as hard the next time.

We learn.

We prepare.

We store.

We build better systems.

We develop better technology.

Hopefully, we protect more people.

The next powerful El Niño will test just how resilient the world’s food system has actually become. There are still serious risks ahead, and experts are not declaring victory.

But perhaps there’s something hopeful in realizing that while the challenges facing our world are changing, our ability to respond to them is changing too.

And that may be a story worth watching.